It was beginning to look a little more festive around the region last month; colourful lights started to pop up, snow began to fall, and home sales – in typical seasonal fashion – also began to relax as we ease further toward the holiday season.
Andrew Lis, Director of Economics and Data Analysis at the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) commented on last month’s market activity, sharing that “With the most recent core inflation metrics showing a stubborn reluctance to respond significantly to the furious pace of rate increases, the Bank of Canada may choose to act more forcefully to bring inflation back toward target levels. While it’s always difficult to predict what the bank will do with certainty, this persistent inflationary backdrop sets up the December 7 rate announcement to be yet another increase, making holiday-season home purchases something people may end up foregoing this year.”
Housing Market at a Glance
Last month, the REBGV reported that home sales in the region totalled 1,614. This figure came in at less than half (-52.9%) of the sales recorded in the same month back in 2021 (3,428). When compared to one month prior in October, sales dipped during that time by 15.2% – down from 1,903.
Overall, last month’s sales we’re 36.9% below the 10-year November sales average.
Across Metro Vancouver, 3,055 detached, attached and apartment properties were newly listed for sale throughout November on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®). This represented a 22.9% decrease compared to the 3,964 homes listed in the same month one year ago, as well as a 24.2% drop compared to this October, which saw 4,033 sellers list their homes.
November had a total of 9,179 homes listed for sale across the region on the MLS® system, 28.5% more than there were in November 2021 (7,144), but 6.8% less than the number of listings available recently in October, which saw 9,852 homes on the market for buyers.
Lis, from the REBGV, went on to mention that, “Heading into 2023, the market continues the trend of shifting toward historical averages and typical seasonal norms. Whether these trends continue will depend on looming economic factors and forthcoming housing policy measures on the horizon, which hold the potential to reignite uncertainty in our market”
“With that said,” Lis goes on to add, “From a long-term structural standpoint, the current pace of listings and available inventory remain relatively tight when considered against a backdrop of continued in-migration to the province. With the recently announced increase in federal immigration targets, the state of available supply in our market remains one demand surge away from renewed price escalation, despite the inflationary environment and elevated mortgage rates.”
Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio and Composite Benchmark Price
For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio this year for November was 17.6%. By property type, that ratio came out as:
Detached homes: 13.2%
Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12% for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20% over several months.
For all residential properties in Metro Vancouver, the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark in November was $1,131,600. In comparisons for the year, this represents a 0.6% decrease over November back in 2021, a 10.2% decrease over the last six months, and a 1.5% decrease compared to October just been.
Metro Vancouver Home Sales by Property Type
Sales of detached homes in November reached 486, a 50.8% decrease from the 987 detached sales recorded in November 2021. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,856,800. This represents a 1.7% dip compared to the same month one year ago, and 1.9% less compared to October earlier this year.
Sales of apartment homes reached 847 in November, less than half of the sales seen in November last year (1,828). The benchmark price of an apartment property is $720,500. This is a 3.5% increase from November last year, but a 0.9% decrease compared to October 2022.
Attached home sales in November totalled 281, a 54.2% decrease compared to the 613 sales we saw in November last year. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $1,027,900 – 2.7% more than November 2021, but 1.5% less than October earlier this year.
*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.